Sunday, January 20, 2013

Run The Football, Stop The Run


Some things remain constant. Despite the aerial circus that has become the NFL in our era, controlling the football still wins games. Given how closely matched today's AFC championship contestants are matched, I have now idea how the absurd 91/2 point spread got generated. Wait, I seem to forgetting all the lessons you've been teaching me. The bookies are obviously providing an incentive to bring betters in on the Baltimore side of the wager.

In any event, here are my hardly novel predictions for the statistical determinants of today's contest, in order.

1) Net turnovers (Patriots 1st, Ravens 9th).

2) Net rushing yards (Patriots ranked 3rd, Ravens 5th).

3) Net time of possession. To the degree that  the Ravens can deprive Brady of opportunities to score, their chances of prevailing are excellent.

4) Net negative passing  yards. In other words, the team with more passing yards is likely to be the loser, especially if the score is not close.


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