Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Congrats. You Win Gerrymandering

Eli,

Shame on me. I clinked on the link about the Colorado re-districting commission, read a bit, sighed and stopped. I never got to the punch line on how it was organized. I, like our President, refuse to accept blame. I blame the author. If someone doesn’t tell me exactly what they want in about 2 paragraphs I assume what they are going to say. Or I move on.

Interesting take on incumbency. I go back and forth on this. If you have a good congressperson why shouldn’t they stay a long time? I’d still be skeptical of this commission solving that. Would (woudn’t) Dems and Repubs do their darndest to draw the districts to keep them in office. That leaves the independents to keep everyone honest, so why not just use the indies. Now we’re back to the experts.

Sigh.

Bill

Why Did The Russians Interfere In the 2016 Election?

Bill,


I don't know of course, since Vladimir Putin hasn't been talking to me lately. Even though the net effect of their activity may have been to provide a small advantage to Trump, I am dubious that their primary intent was to actually help him win, since no one thought he would. Not you or me, not Hillary, and certainly not Donald Trump. And I don't think they were particularly invested in damaging American democracy whatever that means. American democracy is way too resilient for their shenanigans to have much of a lasting or powerful effect.


My guess is that they saw their efforts as an instrument to limit the effects of American power. Russia is a 3rd rate nation, with a miserable economy that functions slightly above third world levels, a pathetic standard of living, limited life expectancy and host of social ills. No one after all. is clamoring to emigrate to Novosibirsk. It is in John McCain's memorable phrase, a gas station masquerading as a country. Russia is not, and never will be, on the same playing field as the United States in economic productivity, education, innovation, quality of life, culture, and host of other arenas that I can't think of at the moment. 


What Russia does have is a robust state-of-the-art community of intelligence services and great cyber espionage capabilities. That's hardly a surprise, since it's run by a spy. So if it can't compete in an equal and transparent way with American influence, the answer is to bring America down to its level. And the easiest way to do weaken Americans' faith in their government and in each other, to sow discord within the body politic, limit unity of purpose, promote paralysis, and weaken resolve. With regards to those goals, one would have to acknowledge, they've been pretty effective at what they set out to do.


Bill  
     


Abolish Gerrrymandering

Bill


I am in fact strongly in favor of abolishing gerrymandering entirely, and have been for as long as I can remember understanding what it is. The problem for me is not that gerrymandering benefits Democrats or Republican since both sides, as you point out, do it. The problem is that it benefits incumbents. It turns democracy on its head, allowing legislators to pick their own votes, and diminishes the power of voters to remove them from office. Most damaging in my opinion, it increases polarization (on both sides). and limits the potential for compromise.


The Colorado reform law and similar laws in Arizona, Utah and elsewhere, doesn't rely on a panel of experts to draw districts. It relies on a mixture or Democrats, Republicans and Independents (to insure that  Dems and Repubs don't collude together). The law emerged after an endless series of bitter fights resolved only after the courts intervened. One analysis suggests that the Colorado law will likely erode the Democratic advantage in the legislature. As far as minority-majority districts created under the Voting Rights act, it can be argued that under many circumstances they dilute the power of minority voters by packing them into gerrymandered districts.


Eli
   

Experts are Humans Too

Eli,

I’m amused by what sets people off, including what I thought was a benign comment that I have less faith than you in the expertise of experts. To me it’s a rather mundane belief that experts don’t set aside their human failings while being experts. I know I don’t. My job requires me to evaluate businesses,  plans, valuation, competition and personnel. The hardest part is keeping emotion out of it because so often I don’t want something to succeed because of some offense I’ve taken. Pure emotion overrides my analytical expertise. Happens often. I don’t think I’m that different than the average person, or expert, in that respect. There are parts that are mechanical, less subject to emotion, and that aspect, sure, experts are marvelous.

This exchange arose because I questioned a Colorado proposal to give the power to draw representative districts to an expert commission. Giving polticial power to a group is dangerous, why would I just hop on board becasue they are “experts?”  Plus, it seems the Dems (you) only really cared about gerrymandering when the GOP won. Maybe not, maybe you think all gerrymandering should be eliminated. Are you willing to argue the majority-minority districts should be part of that elimination? After all, they are court ordered gerrymandering. Will the experts be allowed to exclude those when they un-gerrymander? And if so, how will they treat the changing aspects of the special districts. And I’m willing to be convinced, but  not convinced currently, that gerrymandering is worse now than it was at any other time in our history or results in an unrepresentative House. The last time I checked if a party wins about 50% of the vote they get about 55% of the reps, and that’s kind of where we are now.

So not only do I still have less faith in the expertise of experts, but I’m not convinced gerrymandering is such a vital issue that only exerts can solve.

Bill

What's Wrong With Expertise?

Bill,



The current cultural tide against expertise continues to rise. I freely confess that I don't understand it. I'm an expert at what I do. So are you. Expertise informs almost every aspect of our daily lives. Expertise  ensure that our buildings don't collapse, that our food is safe to eat and our water safe to drink (oops, on second thought not so much). We no longer explain natural phenomena as the work of the gods, or use haruspices  to predict the future (at least most of us don't).


Experts are frequently wrong to be sure. Just consider the previous example. What appears to be true can and does change. In the world I know best, the long running debate over coffee is a salient example. But accumulated knowledge counts for something. And most experts, like you and me, are trying to do the best they can, day after day, with the tools that they have accumulated , and to change their opinions as the facts around them change. Usually that something boils down to health, safety and emotional well being. Ignoring or denigrating expertise has consequences. Just ask the Somali residents of Minneapolis  or the citizens of Miami Beach.


Eli



Tuesday, July 17, 2018

We He Goes Dumb, We Go Dumber

Eli,

I've always found Michelle Obama's "When they go low, we go high," amusing. I guess accusing Mitt Romney of murder and Paul Ryan of pushing old people off the cliff were grandfathered in.

The slogan of the Trump opponents is, "When he goes dumb, we go dumber." Given all the dumb things Trump says there is a constant race to the dumbest. The latest dumb Trump statements about Russia and hacking Clinton, the DNC and DCCC were mind-numbing idiocy and infuriating as well.

Not to be outdone: Former CIA head John Brennan:

Donald Trump’s press conference performance in Helsinki rises to & exceeds the threshold of “high crimes & misdemeanors.” It was nothing short of treasonous. Not only were Trump’s comments imbecilic, he is wholly in the pocket of Putin. Republican Patriots: Where are you???

A Democratic representative from Tennessee I've never heard of (the congressman, not the state) said this:

Where are our military folks ? The Commander in Chief is in the hands of our enemy!
He then claimed he wasn't calling for a military coup. OK sport.

I didn't vote in the 2016 election because I found both candidates foul and loathsome. And I thought maybe the Dems would try to put up a reasonable alternatives for the midterms and for 2020, but it doesn't look that way. Instead it looks like Gresham's Law being applied to the political markets.

Very depressing.

Bill

Monday, July 9, 2018

Idiot In Chief

Bill,


I've been a missing partner in our ongoing conversation for a long time and I offer my apologies. Like many Americans of my political sensibility, I've witnessed the last year and a half with increasing dismay, and have had to work hard to overcome that dismay and continue to oppose the policies  I disagree with.  Much of what has occurred (deregulation, tax reduction, half hearted and unsuccessful attempts to reduce the size of the welfare state, repeated attempts to inject Christian religious preference into public policy etc) would be expected of any contemporary Republican administration, so I may not like it, but can I can hardly be surprised it or view it as something novel. And I can continue to take the long view that the much of the nativism and bigotry on display is also nothing new; from the Chinese Exclusion Act (in force for 60 years)  to the Immigration Law of 1924 (not repealed until 1965) to the general disdain and prejudice exhibited against your ancestors and mine, resistance to the arrival of new Americans is bred into the country's DNA.


What I can't absorb(along with every major economist and the Chamber of Commerce)  is the raw stupidity of so much of what passes for policy coming from the White House. So much of what is touted as economic wisdom seems to violate every principle of how to grow an economy. A trade war looms. Trumps coal obsession is the ultimate picking winners and losers.


Meanwhile, while the longest expansion in modern US economic history continues, storm clouds are gathering. I don't think this ends well. And when the consequence of Administration policy finally unfold, the Idiot-in-Chief will blame everyone else but himself.


Eli   

Dueling Know Nothings

Eli,

This article, "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Ambitious Plan to Save the Planet," on the new darling of the Left,  had this rather typical ambition for many of Malthus/Tarbell/Ehrlich/Hansen/Gore/Mann crowd:

... she has proposed implementing what she calls a “Green New Deal,” a Franklin Delano Roosevelt–like plan to spur “the investment of trillions of dollars and the creation of millions of high-wage jobs,” according to her official website. “The Green New Deal we are proposing will be similar in scale to the mobilization efforts seen in World War II or the Marshall Plan,” she told HuffPost last week. “We must again invest in the development, manufacturing, deployment, and distribution of energy, but this time green energy.”

Riddle me this: How is it Trump, for instance, is a buffoon for wanting to use the power of government to tip the market in coal's favor but Cortez is sage beyond her years for wanting to use the power of government to tip the market in wind and solar's favor? From my perspective they are both economic know-nothings.

Bill


Monday, July 2, 2018

Descent Into Darkness

Bill,


The death of Anthony Bourdain has led to an unexpected chain of emotions from your faithful correspondent, some welcome, some not. I just read Kitchen Confidential. It's an extraordinary memoir, filled with wet-your-pants humor, masterful showmanship and searing honesty. It's dirty and soaring and sobering. He writes with a clarity and punch that I can only envy. You feel like you are sitting across the table (eating great food of course) as he recounts outrageous anecdote after anecdote, all connected to his deep love of cooking and his unblinking self awareness of the chaos and failed chances within his own life. He never imagined that Kitchen Confidential would transform his life that it did, catapulting him into the inner circle of the cooking world and turning him into an international celebrity. Despite his success and fame, he never lost his humility. He never reneged on his acceptance of responsibility for the crap he did and the people he harmed. He gave himself minimal credit for his deep respect for his comrades-in-arms in the kitchen, especially the mostly Black and Brown line cooks, dishwashers, busboys, and night porters. He never made himself out to be more than the journeyman chef he was, and he accepted that as the inevitable consequence of the choices that he alone made . Reading the book in the aftermath of his suicide, one could see hints of  despair lurking underneath the machismo. He tells a chilling story of an incompetent cook who hangs himself a week after being fired that feels clairvoyant. His excellence as a writer and his lust for life that shines throughout the book makes his own irreversible descent into darkness all the more incomprehensible.


But that is not true. Not for this writer. In the fall of 2015, as the buzzing in my  head grew  louder and more intolerable, I begin planning. The 7th floor of the parking lot looked inviting. But that would make a mess, and a spectacle, and I might end up alive but paralyzed, so perhaps a long swim out into the cove from our summer home would work, and might be constructed as an accident,. In that case I figured, the harm, the irreversible across-the-generations  damage to my family that I knew death would cause would somehow be lessened. Finally I settled on the garage. I would sit in my car with the door closed and wonder how long it would take, who would find me in cold and still in my improvised  gas chamber. I was sure I was done for. I was certain I couldn't function with the tinnitus for which there was no cure or relief . I was diminished, hopeless. and angry. I sought help from a psychologist and then a psychiatrist, both of whom turned out to be blaming and inept. After a particularly bad weekend I drove into work knowing that if I returned home alone I would kill myself. I paged the liaison psychiatrist and told him so.


They took my belt and shoes, and after they let me call my wife, my cell phone  The doctor came in and took a long and careful history of the progression of my tinnitus and depression and then left. The emergency room physician couldn't quite believe that there was nothing with the brain of this 60 something year old physician with no history of mental illness, and so ordered a useless )and expensive) MRI. Finally they loaded me into an ambulance and brought me to a locked unit  75 miles away. Golden Valley we can call it. I spent the next five days in oversized sweat pants in the company of the 15 most disconnected human beings I've ever encountered. Disconnected from each other, from themselves, and often from reality. I read books and wondered whether how the hell any of this would make any difference


Like any savvy inmate I learned the rules. No complaining to or about the sadistic bitch of an aide, not if you wanted to get out and not be sent back once you were. No razor, no nail clipper, no dental floss? No problem! Even though the possibility was still quite real I knew had to promise I wouldn't harm myself  before they would let me go, and so I did. In the entire time I spent there I saw 2 different bored looking shrinks for exactly five minutes apiece. For those five days they kept me alive. I'll give them credit for that. I'll also give them credit for making it so unpleasant that I would never, ever go back. 


A different, better psychologist there told me story about a famous Napa restaurant called the French Laundry. Despite the bizarre cost of a meal (think 4 figures for 2) it's impossible to get in as my wife and I learned during a trip through wine country some years back. But this guy had lived there and had buddies and so got a res with no trouble . Something came up, he had to cancel but his pals told him not to worry, the res would remain available any time he wanted. Suicidal ideation is like that. Something about your life sucks; your marriage or your kids, your job, your financial situation, your health. It doesn'1t matter what the particular suck is. Suicide is a solution, and as long as you keep that reservation open it's available, waiting  for you. So you after cancel that reservation. That story was the beginning of the journey out.


My daughter, my wife, my ex-wife,  and one gifted psychiatric social worker saved my life. "I need you Dad" my daughter said to me during her visit to Golden Valley, and that settled that. If she needed me to be around I would goddamn be around, buzz in my head or no. After discharge I entered an old fashioned psychotherapeutically oriented day program. There you create the most intimate relationships you will ever have with folks you have never met before and will never see again. You listen to and tell each other stuff you would never tell anyone else. And you root for each other get well. 


During one particularly bad morning with the tinnitus at full blast. the social worker said to me. "You  know Eli. you don't sound like someone who can't think straight. You sound  like yourself" So the buzzing was unpleasant for sure, but not disabling. It wouldn't kill me. Only I could do that.  An old fashioned no nonsense master-of-psychiatry took me on. I left the day program went back to work. Everybody acted liked I'd never left. Lots of meds off and on with wonderful side effects like night sweats and anorgasmia.  Lots of trips to Brooklyn to see a 90 year old ENT doc who for some reason has spent his life treating a problem  that affects 50 million American and that almost no one  is interested in. My wife was scared shitless through the whole thing but (almost) never showed it. We learned to meditate together (the biggest thing)  I returned to a lot of undeserved love and a life worth living.


I don't think much about my trip through the dark side. But I don't forget about it either. I have a little scout up in the front of my brain peering through the twilight for trouble, and a firmly honed commitment to snuff it out. And if I had some cosmic power for a do over, I would say to Anthony Bourdain, or anyone else, Give someone who cares about you a day. 1 day, And then another day after that, and another. Until you can look out of your hole and see the light that will surely come.  


Eli