The Republicans are Doomed

Eli,

Of course, they aren't doomed at all, but it's amusing to hear the gasbags gloat (if on the Left) and pule (if on the right). The numbers are much less gloomy. In 2012 Republican candidates for the House received 55.1 million votes. This is UP from 51.9 million Republicans received in 2008. Now compare this to Democratic candidates for the House who received 54.5 million votes in 2012, DOWN from 64.9 million in 2008. Voters ran away from Democrats between 2008 and 2012.

I know the Republicans are receiving all sorts of advice to change its stance on immigration, and I wish it would, and change its stance on social issues, and on many of them I also wish it would change its stance, but if you get more votes this election than the last Presidential election and your opponent gets far fewer votes, I'm not sure you can draw the conclusion the nation is clamoring for you to change your policy.

But the Republicans face a demographic challenge that dooms them to minority status (pun intended). So were is this showing up in the numbers? Obama received a big portion of the minority vote, but I'm unconvinced that means Democrats will receive the same benefit in 2014 and 2016. If we look at the percent of votes Democrats and Republicans have received for the US House since 1942 it is difficult to see a demographic tsunami.

The only thing I see is a tendency to throw the bums out. Overreach in 1964 by the Democrats resulted in a shellacking in 1966. Nixon and Watergate led to a shellacking in 1974. Democratic overreach again in 2008 led to another shellacking in 2010. At least to my eyes, the anomaly looks like Democrats getting more than 50% of the vote since the Clinton overreach (BTU tax, HilaryCare) in 1992, leading to the Republican takeover of the House in 1994.

But clearly the Republicans are fated to lose the Presidency, after all, the Party has lost the popular vote in five of the past six elections. Again, I think the numbers tell a different story. First, like the votes for the House, voters ran, in droves, away from Obama in 2012. Obama received 69.5 million votes in 2008 and 61.8 million in 2012. Romney received FEWER votes than McCain, a result contrary to votes for Republicans for the House. People didn't like Romney, enough. But the numbers don't support a wholesale rejection of the Republicans.

I certainly hope Republicans become more like Democrats relative to immigration. In my view, it's simply a matter of free trade. If you believe in free trade, like I do, and believe based on the overwhelming evidence of hundreds of years of history that it is good for the vast majority of people, then more open immigration is a no-brainer. If you believe like I do, most social matters are best left to individual conscience, than one would support the Party moving more towards indifference on gay marriage and cannibas. But it's not clear to me the Party has to do those things, nor that it would be a net winner for it.

Bill