Sunday, March 6, 2016

A Ray of Hope? Or Confirming my Anchor?


 Ted Cruz won 64 delegates yesterday in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine. Trump won 49 delegates, Rubio 13 and Kasich 8.

In the states with open primaries/caucuses, (open to voters, despite party affiliation), 11 so far, Trump has won 275 delegates, Cruz 186. It confirms a piece in the NY Times that asserts a big part of Trump's appeal is to registered Democrats:

He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm.
 In the states with closed primaries/caucuses, 10 so far, Trump has won 93 delegates, Cruz 104.

For the remaining primaries/caucuses there are 953 delegates from closed states and 570 from open states, and only 328 if states with semi-open, open to registered Republicans or Independents, but not Democrats, are counted.

We are also getting into winner-take-all elections, which can have big impacts on the delegate count.

Clearly I was wrong about Trump's appeal. I still don't get it. He is such an obvious fraud. But I'm not willing to give up on beating him. I think Cruz can beat him. More closed primaries/caucuses helps Cruz and only 1/3 of the remaining delegates come from the South and Great Lakes states; that could help him also.


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