Ted Cruz won 64 delegates yesterday in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine. Trump won 49 delegates, Rubio 13 and Kasich 8.
In the states with open primaries/caucuses, (open to voters, despite party affiliation), 11 so far, Trump has won 275 delegates, Cruz 186. It confirms a piece in the NY Times that asserts a big part of Trump's appeal is to registered Democrats:
He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm.In the states with closed primaries/caucuses, 10 so far, Trump has won 93 delegates, Cruz 104.
For the remaining primaries/caucuses there are 953 delegates from closed states and 570 from open states, and only 328 if states with semi-open, open to registered Republicans or Independents, but not Democrats, are counted.
We are also getting into winner-take-all elections, which can have big impacts on the delegate count.
Clearly I was wrong about Trump's appeal. I still don't get it. He is such an obvious fraud. But I'm not willing to give up on beating him. I think Cruz can beat him. More closed primaries/caucuses helps Cruz and only 1/3 of the remaining delegates come from the South and Great Lakes states; that could help him also.