Friday, December 21, 2012

Lets Make A Bet


Two bets actually.

First the easy one. Patriots-Broncos in Denver for the 2nd round of the playoffs. Loser buys the winner  dinner. Winner gets to crow endlessly throughout the meal.

Next the hard one. Here's the CBO's scenario for the effect of falling off the fiscal cliff on the economy. In this case "baseline" represents the doomsday scenario

Fiscal or Economic Measure
Federal deficit in FY2013 $641 billion $1037 billion
Economic growth in FY2013 −0.5% of GDP 1.7% of GDP
Unemployment rate for October thru December 2013 9.1% 8.0%
Public debt in 2022 58% of GDP 90% of GDP

If the CBOs predictions prove accurate, you read both volumes of  Irving Bernstein's landmark labor history of the 20s and 30s.

If the CBOs prediction prove overly pessimistic (by 1/2 percent of GDP or unemployment rate say),  I read the voluminous  libertarian ideological tome of your choosing.


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