Eli,
I hope you saw Lawrence O'Donnell's audition tape for the WWE.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88A70OWdV1U
It's near the end, 8 minutes in, or so.
Bill
Friday, October 19, 2012
Math is Not Laughable
Eli,
Just because Bill Clinton says something, doesn't make it true. In fact, if Bill Clinton says something and its part of a political campaign I would be very skeptical of taking it as true. Thus taking Bill Clinton's assertion that Romney's tax plan is not mathematically feasible at face value is a dangerous path to take.
It's just math. If the reduction in personal tax rates, all else equal, results in reduced taxes of $3.6 to $3.8 trillion over ten years (this is from The Tax Policy Center study the centerpiece of the denialist literature), then the question is are there about $360 billion in annual tax expenditures that can be targeted. And the answer to that is of course there are.
"The Challenge of Individual Income Tax Reform: An Economic Analysis of Tax Base Broadening," is a Congressional Research Service study on a legislative proposal by Senators Wyden, Begich and Coates, (Wyden and Begich are Democrats, Coats a Republican) to "broaden the tax base by eliminating many tax expenditures and reduce tax rates."
The CRS finds
At least when I went to school $1.1 trillion in annual tax expenditures is greater than the $360 billion needed to make the proposal tax neutral. CRS thinks the cut can be twice as large as what Romney has proposed.
The math works. You may argue it's not politically feasible to eliminate the tax expenditures. You may argue its not a desirable policy to eliminate the tax expenditures. But the math certainly works.
Bill
Just because Bill Clinton says something, doesn't make it true. In fact, if Bill Clinton says something and its part of a political campaign I would be very skeptical of taking it as true. Thus taking Bill Clinton's assertion that Romney's tax plan is not mathematically feasible at face value is a dangerous path to take.
It's just math. If the reduction in personal tax rates, all else equal, results in reduced taxes of $3.6 to $3.8 trillion over ten years (this is from The Tax Policy Center study the centerpiece of the denialist literature), then the question is are there about $360 billion in annual tax expenditures that can be targeted. And the answer to that is of course there are.
"The Challenge of Individual Income Tax Reform: An Economic Analysis of Tax Base Broadening," is a Congressional Research Service study on a legislative proposal by Senators Wyden, Begich and Coates, (Wyden and Begich are Democrats, Coats a Republican) to "broaden the tax base by eliminating many tax expenditures and reduce tax rates."
The CRS finds
"There are over 200 separate tax expenditures, which are projected to total over $1.1 trillion in FY2014. The revenue loss of all tax expenditures, however, is highly concentrated in a relatively small number—the largest 20 tax expenditures account for 90% of the total revenue loss of all tax expenditures. This amount is equivalent to 74% of the total FY2014 revenue from individual income taxes. If used for rate reduction alone, eliminating these tax expenditures could allow tax rates to be reduced by around 43%: for example, the top 39.6% tax rate could be reduced to approximately 23%."
At least when I went to school $1.1 trillion in annual tax expenditures is greater than the $360 billion needed to make the proposal tax neutral. CRS thinks the cut can be twice as large as what Romney has proposed.
The math works. You may argue it's not politically feasible to eliminate the tax expenditures. You may argue its not a desirable policy to eliminate the tax expenditures. But the math certainly works.
Bill
Winter Is Coming
Bill,
Fans of Game of Thrones, the hit HBO series that brings George R.R. Martin's medieval fantasy world alive complete with witches, zombies, dragons, fabulous costumes and lots of sex, will recognize that warning as the ultimate prophecy of the hard times that lie ahead in a world where the length and harshness of the seasons is entirely unpredictable and well beyond the control of men. You don't know when or for how long. You only know that it will be so.
Regardless of who prevails 2 1/2 weeks from now, I alternate between periods of abject despair and faint hope that those who prevail will find the courage to address the enormous problems we face in some coherent way. Despite the wailing of partisans at both extremes of the spectrum to the contrary, democracy is working. The American people are choosing exactly the kind of government they desire; one that consistently indulges their fantasy that they can have whatever they want and not have to to pay for it. I'm glad that we both agree that 2+2=4. Would someone please explain that arithmetic to the candidates, especially former Governor Romney? The idea that his tax proposal is revenue neutral, never mind deficit reducing is, as you like to say, laughable. And you argue just as coherently, that Obama's numbers suffer from the same self delusion. That delusion however is what that the body politic believes. The politicians being politicians, will continue to tell the public what it wants to hear.
For both the 99 and the 1%, this election feels more and more about voters increasingly desperate to hold onto what they have, and the unstated fear that the pie is just going to continue to shrink.
BTW, it's hardly a surprise that there are those who choose to flee 75% marginal tax rates. I would do so, and I bet so would you. What the Socialists did in France was stupid and they will learn to regret it. But its a long way from 75% to the 36%, the top Clinton era rate for single filers. Those rates, along with events that had nothing to do with tax policy, were coincident with greatest period of prosperity of my lifetime. If they altered behavior, I didn't see it.
Eli
Fans of Game of Thrones, the hit HBO series that brings George R.R. Martin's medieval fantasy world alive complete with witches, zombies, dragons, fabulous costumes and lots of sex, will recognize that warning as the ultimate prophecy of the hard times that lie ahead in a world where the length and harshness of the seasons is entirely unpredictable and well beyond the control of men. You don't know when or for how long. You only know that it will be so.
Regardless of who prevails 2 1/2 weeks from now, I alternate between periods of abject despair and faint hope that those who prevail will find the courage to address the enormous problems we face in some coherent way. Despite the wailing of partisans at both extremes of the spectrum to the contrary, democracy is working. The American people are choosing exactly the kind of government they desire; one that consistently indulges their fantasy that they can have whatever they want and not have to to pay for it. I'm glad that we both agree that 2+2=4. Would someone please explain that arithmetic to the candidates, especially former Governor Romney? The idea that his tax proposal is revenue neutral, never mind deficit reducing is, as you like to say, laughable. And you argue just as coherently, that Obama's numbers suffer from the same self delusion. That delusion however is what that the body politic believes. The politicians being politicians, will continue to tell the public what it wants to hear.
For both the 99 and the 1%, this election feels more and more about voters increasingly desperate to hold onto what they have, and the unstated fear that the pie is just going to continue to shrink.
BTW, it's hardly a surprise that there are those who choose to flee 75% marginal tax rates. I would do so, and I bet so would you. What the Socialists did in France was stupid and they will learn to regret it. But its a long way from 75% to the 36%, the top Clinton era rate for single filers. Those rates, along with events that had nothing to do with tax policy, were coincident with greatest period of prosperity of my lifetime. If they altered behavior, I didn't see it.
Eli
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Those Jobs are not coming back.
Eli,
There was an exchange last night where I actually preferred Obama to Romney.
Candy Crowley asked,
President Obama answered:
But the news is still good. Those cheap iPads and iPhones and Macs manufactured in China, CREATE jobs in the US.
The FCC has launched a new auction to "repurpose broadcast television spectrum for mobile broadband." It states in the release, "The mobile apps economy barely existed in 2009 but today, it supports nearly 500,000 jobs." I'm guessing they are underestimating the number of jobs. Without China, and low-wage, low-skill manufacturing to supply us with iPhones and iPads and Macs, there wouldn't be 500,000 jobs in the mobile apps economy. Win win. I get a cheap iPhone. Then I pay $1.99 to get a really cool app, "Check the Weather." I'm happy, China is Happy. The estate of Steve Jobs is happy. David Smith & Cross Forward Consulting, LLC (they make the Check the Weather app) is happy.
Bill
There was an exchange last night where I actually preferred Obama to Romney.
Candy Crowley asked,
Mr. President, we have a really short time for a quick discussion here.Romney's answer was inane. He used it as another opportunity to bash China.
IPad, the Macs, the iPhones, they are all manufactured in China, and one of the major reasons is labor is so much cheaper here. How do you convince a great American company to bring that manufacturing back here?
President Obama answered:
Candy, there are some jobs that are not going to come back, because they’re low-wage, low-skill jobs. I want high- wage, high-skill jobs.Then he went off the rails blathering about manufacturing. But let's just stay on the first part. He's right, those jobs are not coming back. Well, they would come back if we removed the barriers to low-skill, low-wage jobs, like minimum wages and the immense regulatory machinery that makes labor expensive in this country. But I doubt we are about to do that.
But the news is still good. Those cheap iPads and iPhones and Macs manufactured in China, CREATE jobs in the US.
The FCC has launched a new auction to "repurpose broadcast television spectrum for mobile broadband." It states in the release, "The mobile apps economy barely existed in 2009 but today, it supports nearly 500,000 jobs." I'm guessing they are underestimating the number of jobs. Without China, and low-wage, low-skill manufacturing to supply us with iPhones and iPads and Macs, there wouldn't be 500,000 jobs in the mobile apps economy. Win win. I get a cheap iPhone. Then I pay $1.99 to get a really cool app, "Check the Weather." I'm happy, China is Happy. The estate of Steve Jobs is happy. David Smith & Cross Forward Consulting, LLC (they make the Check the Weather app) is happy.
Bill
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
"the notion that marginal tax rates do matter"
Eli,
I was amused by your grudging admission "I have some sympathy with the notion that marginal tax rates do matter. " I could almost feel your pain. I kept rolling over those words "the notion." I have sympathy with the notion 2 + 2 = 4.
Try this one on for size.
Bill
From Greg Mankiw's Blog
I was amused by your grudging admission "I have some sympathy with the notion that marginal tax rates do matter. " I could almost feel your pain. I kept rolling over those words "the notion." I have sympathy with the notion 2 + 2 = 4.
Try this one on for size.
Bill
From Greg Mankiw's Blog
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2012
People Respond to Incentives
France's new 75 percent income tax on the rich may not be popular with millionaires. But it's being cheered by another group: Paris real-estate buyers. Real estate agents say that the number of multi-million-dollar real-estate listings in Paris has jumped more than 25 percent over last year -- due in part to the threat of the new income tax....[B]rokers say the 75 percent tax on the wealthiest French citizens has contributed to the decision by many of the them to sell their homes in anticipation of a possible move to another country.
The Keystone Pipeline
Eli,
Serious questions for you.
Candy Crowley last night asked President Obama:
"Mr. President, could you address — because we did finally get to gas prices here — could you address what the governor said, which is: If your energy policy was working, the price of gasoline would not be $4 a gallon here. Is that true?"Obama responded, in part:
"And with respect to this pipeline that Governor Romney keeps on talking about, we’ve — we’ve built enough pipeline to wrap around the entire earth once.
So, I’m all for pipelines. I’m all for oil production."
First question: Do you believe him? Is he all for pipelines and oil production?
Second question: Did he tell the truth?
Bill
Things I really dislike about Romney.
Eli
The things I really dislike about Romney:
1) China bashing. What is the point of this? If China's currency is undervalued, it means Americans get goods cheaper. I like that. My iPhone is cheaper, my iPad is cheaper, your Blackberry is cheaper, solar panels are cheaper. Arguing China should raise prices is baffling.
2) Immigration. People come to America to work and make a better life for themselves and their families. Let them in, give them a map of the US and a cup of coffee with this message, "Welcome to America, have a nice day." Yes, I am serious.
3) Energy policy. Why are we even talking about this? We don't have a peanut butter policy and that market seems to work. We don't have a shoe policy and that market seems to work. We don't have a iPhone policy and the market seems to work. "All of the above?" No. How about, let consumers decide.
4) Mr. Fix-it. Obama and Romney share the same delusional perception he is the smartest guy in the room and he can turn this knob or flip that switch of the economy and it will be solved. They can't. It won't.
Those are the big ones.
Bill
The things I really dislike about Romney:
1) China bashing. What is the point of this? If China's currency is undervalued, it means Americans get goods cheaper. I like that. My iPhone is cheaper, my iPad is cheaper, your Blackberry is cheaper, solar panels are cheaper. Arguing China should raise prices is baffling.
2) Immigration. People come to America to work and make a better life for themselves and their families. Let them in, give them a map of the US and a cup of coffee with this message, "Welcome to America, have a nice day." Yes, I am serious.
3) Energy policy. Why are we even talking about this? We don't have a peanut butter policy and that market seems to work. We don't have a shoe policy and that market seems to work. We don't have a iPhone policy and the market seems to work. "All of the above?" No. How about, let consumers decide.
4) Mr. Fix-it. Obama and Romney share the same delusional perception he is the smartest guy in the room and he can turn this knob or flip that switch of the economy and it will be solved. They can't. It won't.
Those are the big ones.
Bill
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