Tuesday, February 4, 2014

How Much Will the ACA Reduce Employment in the Longer Term?

From the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014-2024." Appendix C, Page 117

How Much Will the ACA Reduce Employment in the Longer Term?
The ACA’s largest impact on labor markets will probably occur after 2016, once its major provisions have taken full effect and overall economic output nears its maximum sustainable level. CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor—given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive. Because the largest declines in labor supply will probably occur among lower-wage workers, the reduction in aggregate compensation (wages, salaries, and fringe benefits) and the impact on the overall economy will be proportionally smaller than the reduction in hours worked. Specifically, CBO estimates that the ACA will cause a reduction of roughly 1 percent in aggregate labor compensation over the 2017–2024 period, com- pared with what it would have been otherwise. Although such effects are likely to continue after 2024 (the end of the current 10-year budget window), CBO has not estimated their magnitude or duration over a longer period.

"The largest declines in labor supply will probably occur among lower-wage workers." Good thing the Democrats are on the side of the working man.

Keep your plan? No.
Keep your doctor? No.
Lower premiums? No.
Lower the number of uninsured? So far, no.
Bonus for the low wage workers? Less work.

Tell me again the Democrats were so anxious to pass this law?


No comments:

Post a Comment