You Shouldn't Believe Eveything You Read

Bill,

Lot's of scary things are happening in the world, but I'm here to reassure (or is it just to disagree with?) you that biased journalism isn't one of them. You, the true historian in this conversation, can no doubt cite endless examples of one-sided, distorted, mendacious, bigoted, sinister-purposed and violence-inciting reportage since the birth of the Republic. The media's earnest and self-congratulatory insistence that it seeks objective truth  is a polite fiction at best and a laughable delusion at worst. Even if  I can't watch it for more than 30 seconds, Fox News is important. Not because it's "fair and balanced" (it's not) but because it tells different stories from different points of view than the "fake news" your faithful correspondent holds so dear.

The Founders believed that as long as everyone gets their say the truth will eventually emerge. I believe they had it right. Fox, Sinclair Broadcasting, the Wall Street Journal, National Review, Commentary, the American Spectator (I could go on but you get the point) certainly aren't ignoring the President's voice. The President, who can't stand any coverage that doesn't obsequiously flatter him, has other ideas. If, in some apocalyptic alternate universe, Trump could have his way with the 1st Amendment, he's given us a pretty idea of what he' do with it.

Several billion citizens around the world would gladly trade their fake news for ours. The folks who ought to be scared, and yet who somehow are not, are the journalists who try to report in such times from such places.

Eli

Well That's Scary

Eli,

I saw this headline, "Social media outpaces print newspapers in the U.S. as a news source," and thought, well, that's scary. Then I read the story and saw how many people get their news from TV and thought, well, that's scary. Then I thought about how many people get their news from the NY Times and thought, well, that's scary. Then I remembered how the PBS Newshour has become, "The world is on fire because of climate change and its all Donald Trump's fault," and thought, well that's scary. Mrs. Knabe remarked to me last night she was tired of the PBS Newshour routine. She's the moderate one in our union.

One of the (many) odd things about Trump is his ability to identify a serious issue, then distort the hell out of it. In my mind there is a serious credibility issue for the US media and our President has identified this and vocalized it loudly and the fact that he distorts the issue seems to give the residents of the media-industrial complex  leave to ignore his, and mine, and Mrs. Knabe's, concerns. I'm going to guess we will all regret their inability to self-examine.

Bill

Alaska Oil Production

Eli,

In the space of 10 years the US has become the #1 producer of oil in the world. More than Saudi Arabia. More than Russia.

The failing NY Times has an article on the 30+ year attempt to open up drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). I was a little disappointed by a lack of context about the US oil industry.

Here's a chart from EIA, showing oil production since 1973. Prudhoe Bay was discovered in 1968 and starting producing meaningful amounts of oil in 1978. Production at Prudhoe peaked in 1988 at 1.6 million barrels per day, about 25% of US oil production. US and Alaska production declined through 2008 when friend of the oil industry, Barack Obama, was elected President. Since then US oil production has doubled to almost 9 million barrels a day in 2017 and will be almost 12 million barrels a day in 2019. Total Alaska production is now less than 500 thousand barrels a day, less than 5% of total US production.

The US is now the swing producer of oil, displacing Saudi Arabia in that role. Increased prices results in rapid increases in US production, pushing down prices, until US producers can't make their required rate of return, and drilling and completions decline, or rise at a slower rate, and supply contracts.

ANWR used to be a much bigger deal. 30 years ago, no one thought there would be a technological breakthrough in hydraulic fracturing so drilling in ANWR was considered more important. The decline in US production also resulted in much greater government mandated conservation efforts, which I believe were futile. Letting prices clear results in the all the supply/demand adjustments that are necessary.

Maybe ANWR can fill the unused capacity of the Alaskan pipeline, but in terms of overall US production the real action is in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and North Dakota.

Bill

Cowardice and Sloth Attracts Amazon to New York

Eli,

My favorite part from this story on Amazon's choice of New York as one of its new headquarters:

Gov. Andrew Cuomo defended the deal, arguing that New York has to offer incentives because of its comparatively high taxes. At 6.5 percent, New York’s corporate income-tax rate is only modestly higher than Virginia’s 6 percent, according to the Tax Foundation. But other business and individual taxes are higher in New York.

“It’s not a level playing field to begin with,” Mr. Cuomo said in an interview Tuesday. “All things being equal, if we do nothing, they’re going to Texas.”

If taxes are too high to attract Amazon, I'm guessing they are too high for everyone. And if that's the case I'm not sure why Amazon deserves to be subsidized by everyone else. Usually the response to that question is as inane as Cuomo's.

Kevin Williamson had this take, which I totally agree with

If New York City can only hope to attract a firm like Amazon by essentially bribing (in an entirely legal fashion!) its shareholders, then what does that say about New York City? A New York City with excellent schools, a first-rate mass-transit system, a sensible tax and regulatory environment, and better public sanitation might not have to pay off corporate shareholders — no, that kind of New York City would have the confidence to say: “This is New York. Lots of people want to be here. You’re welcome to join us, and we’ll provide the best municipal services we can, but don’t act like you’re doing us a favor. We were a big deal before you came along, guys.” But fixing the schools and subways is hard work, and doing it economically is even harder. You know what isn’t hard work? Giving somebody else’s money to a third party from whom you want something. That isn’t leadership. It’s cowardice and sloth.

Many (not me) bemoan the partisanship and tribalism of our current politics (I think it's healthy and normal) so many are probably applauding the cowardice and sloth of politicians on both sides that bribe companies to come to their communities rather than engaging in the hard work of government.

Bill

Happy Thanksgiving

Plastic Bags- An Inconvenient Truth

Eli,
Thanks for proving my point about plastic bags. The only argument I've heard goes like the one you implied: Plastic is bad, it ends up in the oceans and kills turtles, which isn't really an argument. It's more like a concatenation of evidence-less assertions.

This from Science Magazine by way of National Geographic,

In 2010, eight million tons of plastic trash ended up in the ocean from coastal countries—far more than the total that has been measured floating on the surface in the ocean's "garbage patches."

From the Earth Policy Institute:

Currently 100 billion plastic bags pass through the hands of U.S. consumers every year—almost one bag per person each day.

A plastic bag weighs 4 grams, let's say 8 for the sake of argument. 8 x 100 billion = 800 billion grams, which is 1.7 billion pounds, which is 850 thousand tonnes, or 10% of total plastics ending up in the ocean IF EVERY SINGLE BAG ENDS UP IN THE OCEAN. Not hardly.

So sure, ban bags. But I think it's moral preening, not a realistic policy.

Bill

There's A Great Furture In Plastics

Bill,

I can't resist. I know you'll forgive me. Here's the critical exchange from that unforgettable scene in the Graduate that has proved so prescient.

Mr. McGuire: I just want to say one word to you. Just one word.

Benjamin: Yes, sir.

Mr. McGuire: Are you listening?

Benjamin: Yes, I am.

Mr. McGuire: Plastics.

Benjamin: Exactly how do you mean?

Mr. McGuire: There's a great future in plastics. Think about it. Will you think about it?

And here is what the future has brought to us


.


Eli