How did we get here? Socialist, Felon or Bloviating Ignoramus.

Eli,

How is it possible the Republicans are potentially nominating a demagogue who is more of a Democrat, one who is best described by George Will as a "bloviating ignoramus," and the Democrats nominating either a self-avowed socialist or a potential felon? How is this possible?

I think we are going to have the answer to the question of "Which party has deteriorated most?' on Monday night.

I'm going to stick with my prediction that the bloviating ignoramus will not win any caucuses or primaries and he comes in third, at best, in Iowa. I have no predictions for the Democrats in Iowa but stick with my prediction the felon will not be nominated. The socialist or the felon is not much of a choice. Good luck with that.

Is it really going to come to a choice between the socialist and the bloviating ignoramus? One thing I do believe strongly is the Democrats will regret their cheerleading for executive action and their complaints against gridlock. If the next president is a socialist or a bloviating ignoramus gridlock will be the best we can hope for.

Bill

When Pensions Crowd out Infrastructure

Eli,

I read this, from The American Interest, and kept thinking of Connecticut and its current budget issues.

When Pensions Crowd out Infrastructure

The enterprising blogger Greg Branch has an interesting explainer on the origins of the Flint water crisis that doubles as a rebuttal to those (mostly on the left) who are trying to turn it into a crude bludgeon against their political opponents. As Branch explains, the disaster was caused by a cascade of failures at multiple levels, implicating people in both parties as well as non-partisan bureaucrats. One passage:

So Flint’s water department is asked to start treating its own water – something it hasn’t done in at least 50 years, if ever. The water guys told the mayor and Council and the EFM (by this time, Darnell Earley), “sure, we can do that.”

Apparently, they couldn’t. I’m speculating here: They had no experience in treating raw water. I don’t know if they read a book, took a seminar or watched a how-to on YouTube, but either way, they started treating the water as if it were being run through a modern distribution system of plastic and copper pipes.
It’s not. It’s running through a 100-plus-year-old system of cast iron mains and lead service lines.

The crisis may have been averted if the authorities understood the need to treat the water properly given their aging water distribution infrastructure—but it would also have been averted if that infrastructure was up to date. The reality is that revenue-hungry city governments had been systemically starving basic infrastructure maintenance for decades while scrounging every dime to meet the demands of unions, feed the greed of crooked politicians, pay exploding health care and pension costs, and fund other “urgent” priorities. As a result, little things like maintenance and upgrades for century-old water systems were apparently out of the question.

Sound principles of public finance and administration, like the laws of arithmetic and the logic of cause and effect, are neither Republican nor Democratic. And when a society like ours ignores basic principles for decade after decade, the consequences start to build up.

Bill

Whistling Past the Graveyard

Eli,

GE's move to Boston has many reasons but to argue, "It is clear that GE’s decision has nothing to do with taxes, or even business costs, and cannot fairly be viewed as a referendum on Connecticut’s growing economy" seems foolish.

Statements from Senate President Martin M. Looney & Majority Leader Bob Duff

Senate President Martin M. Looney (D-New Haven) and Majority Leader Bob Duff (D-Norwalk) today released the following statements regarding General Electric’s (GE) plan to move its headquarters to Boston.

“General Electric is rebranding its image and shifting its central business platform away from heavy industry and financial services to digital software and technology, changing the very structure and composition of its headquarters. While I am disappointed that GE has chosen to relocate its headquarters, given all the facts, moving some of their employees to Boston’s Seaport matches their shift in business strategy,” said Sen. Looney.

“It is clear that GE’s decision has nothing to do with taxes, or even business costs, and cannot fairly be viewed as a referendum on Connecticut’s growing economy. Connecticut’s unemployment rates have dropped to the lowest level since March 2008. In 2015, Connecticut saw the sixth-largest unemployment drop in the country. In fact, GE just increased its workforce in Connecticut after purchasing Alstom Energy, adding 1,200 jobs in Windsor and Bloomfield,” continued Sen. Looney.

“Those who would seek to paint GE’s departure as an economic referendum should have their motives examined very closely. The 16 Fortune 500 companies that still proudly call Connecticut home, a number that places Connecticut by far as number one in the nation for most Fortune 500 headquarters on a per capita basis, will continue to prosper here, as will the new businesses that move to our state every single day,” Sen. Looney concluded.

“While I am disappointed that GE is moving approximately 200 jobs to Boston, it is, however, an undeniable fact that Connecticut’s economy is growing and creating jobs and we are training our workforce to compete in a global economy. Businesses around the country and the globe know Connecticut for its business competitiveness, worker productivity, and highly educated workforce. That’s why GE will still have thousands of employees in Connecticut” said Sen. Duff.

“2015 brought the sixth-largest drop in unemployment in the nation to Connecticut. Last month, the largest mattress manufacturing company in the country, Serta Simmons Bedding, announced 200 new jobs were moving to Connecticut from Massachusetts. Just days later, the headquarters of Deutsch Family Wine & Spirits left New York for Connecticut bringing more than 100 new or relocated jobs. Meanwhile, communication companies Frontier and Comcast are continuing to invest and recently announced they were each adding 150 to 200 new jobs,” continued Sen. Duff.

“Connecticut remains the number one state for Fortune 500 company headquarters per million residents. Among the sixteen headquarters here in Connecticut are aircraft manufacturer United Technologies, health insurance leaders Aetna and Cigna, and well-known companies like Xerox, Priceline and Stanley Black & Decker. Our state offers a quality of life that is second to none, and we will continue to grow jobs and attract new businesses to Connecticut,” concluded Sen. Duff.

Bill

Donald J. Kardashian

Eli,

The collective we keep treating and thinking of Trump as a serious candidate, but he isn't. He's a reality TV star, who has taken his show to a new venue. The problem, as you pointed out last night, is one of anchoring. The media is anchored in the belief Trump is a candidate and not a reality TV star and cant' understand why the electorate judges him by a different set of rules than every other candidate. To the electorate, he isn't a candidate, he is entertainment and they will not judge him like a candidate but instead like a reality TV character.

Watch the Real Housewives of wherever, or Keeping Up with the Karadashians. The more outrageous they are the better; that is what the audience expects. And that is exactly what Trump delivers to his audience: outrage and outrageous behavior. Why does the electorate keep rewarding him for this we ask? It's easy, because it's not the electorate, it's the viewing public and they are entertained.

Back to anchoring. If you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail. And if you are a journalist covering politics Trump looks like a politician and the polls sound like expressions of what the voters will actually do when they enter the caucus or polling booth.

I still believe he is a distraction and will go away, like 90% of illnesses, if we let it.

Not to say he can't do damage. He can, and is. Unfortunately, the other politicians in the contest are anchored in their beliefs as well and don't see he is an act in a show, an interloper on their stage. So they treat him seriously and treat his (frequently contradictory) positions as something to either embrace of run from.

Steven Colbert was interviewed recently and said

“I’m not the first person to say this, but I completely agree that he’s my old character with $10 billion,”

Exactly. But instead of thinking of Trump as a character, they think he's real. He's not. He's been a reality TV star for 10 years and he still is.

Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I continue to believe he won't win any primaries or caucuses. Certainly there are some who would vote for Donald J. Kardashian, but my bet is most of his support is a more akin to a TV rating, and not political support.

Bill

Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado

Eli,

I was listening to CNN's "State of the Union," today. The journalist was discussing the 2016 election and the challenge the Republicans will have given the inevitable march of demographics etc. (Often I think CNN just takes the Democratic party talking points and runs with it).

It was pointed out if you start with the electoral map of 2012 the Republicans only need to switch Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado to pick up enough votes to win the Presidency. The next five minutes was spent discussing why that is so hard to achieve.

Maybe.

Here's the results of the House elections in 2014, admittedly a low-turnout election compared to Presidential elections, in each of those states. Source is fec.gov.

Florida
Democratic 2,130,626
Republican 2,713,451
Other 154,478

Ohio
Democratic 1,179,587
Republican 1,770,923
Other 49,651

Virginia
Democratic 2,010,842
Republican 2,348,528
Other 201,747

Colorado
Democratic 1,880,620
Republican 1,984,088
Other 176,875

And as far as the inevitability of demographics: In 2012 about 17% of the US population was classified by the Census department as Hispanic. Wikipedia has this helpful chart.
Florida 23% Hispanic
Colorado 21% Hispanic
Virginia 8.4% Hispanic
Ohio 3.3% Hispanic.

If that Hispanics = Democratic victory is true, how does it explain the 2014 election results in Colorado and Florida, with greater than average Hispanic populations?

Bill

Trump Will not Win Even One Primary or Caucus

Eli,

I don't think Trump will win even one primary or caucus. Which suits me just fine.

The NY Times had an interesting article on Trump's lack of organization in Iowa. After reading this I doubt he'll even show in Iowa.

Chris Wallace interviewed Trump on Fox News Sunday last week and was shown Trump's HQ. The lack of people and activity was striking. Trump attributes it to his skill as a campaigner. I'm a denier on this as well. Trump has been give a tremendous advantage by the TV networks, allowed to call in his interviews, and recognizing an industry anxious for ratings will give him non-stop airtime for all the ridiculous, insipid, contradictory statements he makes. (Bernie Sanders,  Hilary, John Kasich and others have expressed their jealously recognizing they too are just as ridiculous).

I hope this bloviating distraction is out of the race by South Carolina.

Bill

It Has Electrolytes!

Eli,

I am a former loyal customer of Chipotle; Too many instances of their food causing customers to get sick. You may be dreading my normal conclusion about the power of the markets. Rest easy, I'm not going there. As much as I liked Chipotle I was always put off by the organic label they put on their food and by their decision to not use GMOs. The organic food label is a mystery to me. Isn't all food organic. It's like that tag line in "Idiocracy," where the population declares Gatorade is good for plants because it has electrolytes. No one knows what that means but it sounds smart. It's organic! 

In a Forbes article, "Chipotle: The Long Defeat Of Doing Nothing Well," I was surprised to read this:

Although the crops, meats and other foods produced by modern conventional agricultural technologies may not bring to mind a sentimental Norman Rockwell painting, they are on average safer than food that reflects pandering to current fads.

And Chipotle knows it.

“We may be at a higher risk for food-borne illness outbreaks than some competitors,” the company admits in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, “due to our use of fresh produce and meats rather than frozen, and our reliance on employees cooking with traditional methods rather than automation.” (Think about that: Would you agree to open-heart surgery if the anesthesiologist planned to use “traditional methods” instead of state-of-the-art technology?)

Sure enough, that's exactly what the company says in its 10K, the annual financial report filed with the SEC. To some extent, the risk factors in these reports are kitchen sink items to avoid litigation, but it's still an eye-opening admission by a proponent of  organic foods that organic foods may be riskier than non? un? anti? organic food.

Oh, and the decline in sales and stock price will discipline Chipotle faster and more effectively than government.

Bill.