You Shouldn't Believe Eveything You Read

Bill,

Lot's of scary things are happening in the world, but I'm here to reassure (or is it just to disagree with?) you that biased journalism isn't one of them. You, the true historian in this conversation, can no doubt cite endless examples of one-sided, distorted, mendacious, bigoted, sinister-purposed and violence-inciting reportage since the birth of the Republic. The media's earnest and self-congratulatory insistence that it seeks objective truth  is a polite fiction at best and a laughable delusion at worst. Even if  I can't watch it for more than 30 seconds, Fox News is important. Not because it's "fair and balanced" (it's not) but because it tells different stories from different points of view than the "fake news" your faithful correspondent holds so dear.

The Founders believed that as long as everyone gets their say the truth will eventually emerge. I believe they had it right. Fox, Sinclair Broadcasting, the Wall Street Journal, National Review, Commentary, the American Spectator (I could go on but you get the point) certainly aren't ignoring the President's voice. The President, who can't stand any coverage that doesn't obsequiously flatter him, has other ideas. If, in some apocalyptic alternate universe, Trump could have his way with the 1st Amendment, he's given us a pretty idea of what he' do with it.

Several billion citizens around the world would gladly trade their fake news for ours. The folks who ought to be scared, and yet who somehow are not, are the journalists who try to report in such times from such places.

Eli

Well That's Scary

Eli,

I saw this headline, "Social media outpaces print newspapers in the U.S. as a news source," and thought, well, that's scary. Then I read the story and saw how many people get their news from TV and thought, well, that's scary. Then I thought about how many people get their news from the NY Times and thought, well, that's scary. Then I remembered how the PBS Newshour has become, "The world is on fire because of climate change and its all Donald Trump's fault," and thought, well that's scary. Mrs. Knabe remarked to me last night she was tired of the PBS Newshour routine. She's the moderate one in our union.

One of the (many) odd things about Trump is his ability to identify a serious issue, then distort the hell out of it. In my mind there is a serious credibility issue for the US media and our President has identified this and vocalized it loudly and the fact that he distorts the issue seems to give the residents of the media-industrial complex  leave to ignore his, and mine, and Mrs. Knabe's, concerns. I'm going to guess we will all regret their inability to self-examine.

Bill

Alaska Oil Production

Eli,

In the space of 10 years the US has become the #1 producer of oil in the world. More than Saudi Arabia. More than Russia.

The failing NY Times has an article on the 30+ year attempt to open up drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). I was a little disappointed by a lack of context about the US oil industry.

Here's a chart from EIA, showing oil production since 1973. Prudhoe Bay was discovered in 1968 and starting producing meaningful amounts of oil in 1978. Production at Prudhoe peaked in 1988 at 1.6 million barrels per day, about 25% of US oil production. US and Alaska production declined through 2008 when friend of the oil industry, Barack Obama, was elected President. Since then US oil production has doubled to almost 9 million barrels a day in 2017 and will be almost 12 million barrels a day in 2019. Total Alaska production is now less than 500 thousand barrels a day, less than 5% of total US production.

The US is now the swing producer of oil, displacing Saudi Arabia in that role. Increased prices results in rapid increases in US production, pushing down prices, until US producers can't make their required rate of return, and drilling and completions decline, or rise at a slower rate, and supply contracts.

ANWR used to be a much bigger deal. 30 years ago, no one thought there would be a technological breakthrough in hydraulic fracturing so drilling in ANWR was considered more important. The decline in US production also resulted in much greater government mandated conservation efforts, which I believe were futile. Letting prices clear results in the all the supply/demand adjustments that are necessary.

Maybe ANWR can fill the unused capacity of the Alaskan pipeline, but in terms of overall US production the real action is in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and North Dakota.

Bill