Trump and the Russians,

Eli,

If I understand Friedman’s and your argument correctly it goes like this: The Russians interfered in the US election. Trump can’t or won’t defend the US against this attack  (Friedman puts the election in the same category of attack as Pearl Harbor and 2001), that means our democracy is in serious danger and that threat is Trump himself: “The biggest threat to the integrity of our democracy today is in the Oval Office.”

When I hear this argument I hear something different. And now I’m (unfairly?) putting you and Friedman into this camp:  Trump’s election was a shock.  There has to be a reason such a loathsome person won. Because he is loathsome there has to be a way to invalidate the results. Russian interference and collusion sounds plausible because of Trump's praise of Putin, the Clinton-purchased Steele dossier and the hints that Trump’s real estate deals are financed by Russian money.

Even if the anti-Trumpers hadn’t been trying to invalidate the election since the election, I’d be skeptical of such a claim. But this is one in a series of accusations and arguments made, (Trump never wanted to win, he’ll resign; the Intelligence Community should brief the electors of the electoral college; pleas to the electors to vote for Clinton; calls for impeachment before he took office; and my favorite, conclusions by psychiatrists that Trump is crazy without ever examining him) to change the outcome of the election. If the reaction to Trump’s election hadn’t been so hysterical maybe I would be more open to the Russian collusion argument. Probably not, but the reaction by the Dems and the media harmed their credibility in my eyes.

And the hysteria continues today. The TV headlines after something Russian is announced  are often Mueller is “closing in” on Trump. The headline itself reveals the belief in the conclusion that Trump is guilty of something. Or take Friedman’s argument that 1) Trump is hiding some threatening item or 2) he’s criminally incompetent. There are certainly many more options than that. Trump doesn't have to be hiding anything. Maybe he's hiding something that has nothing to do with Russia. Maybe he is incompetent but not criminally. Maybe he's super competent but Friedman doesn't like the results.  I find it difficult to be sympathetic to Friedman’s false choice argument. This type of argument, by its nature, is either 1) lazy or 2) deceitful. Or your headline, “Traitor Trump.” Really? Traitor? Thank you Red Queen, first the verdict, then the trial.

Friedman doesn’t embrace the collusion theory, at least explicitly, although he hints at it. He is worked up over Russian interference and I understand that and share that concern, although I’m not alarmed. Admittedly, it’s not a compelling argument when I speculate this probably isn’t  Russia's first time interfering in another country’s elections. Nor is it comforting to point out other countries (China, North Korea, Iran, even our allies to some extent) also interfere in our elections. And it is rather meaningless to point out the US interferes in other country’s elections.

Maybe one of the reasons I’m not too alarmed is because I've been told repeatedly there is no voter fraud in the US. This is as good as any explication of that view. But that’s a cheap shot and somewhat avoids the issue. No one, yet, is claiming that Manchurian voters were sent to the polls. Although when the claim is made the Russians “hacked” the election that is implied. The argument is that the Russians engaged in a campaign that confused voters into not voting for Clinton, voting for Trump or simply not voting.  We do know the Russians tried to sow confusion. We don’t know if it was effective. 

Mueller’s indictment against the Internet Research Agency states the Russians began as early as 2014 to “interfere with the U.S. political system,” and “addressed divisive U.S. political and social issues,” with a “strategic goal to sow discord in the U.S. political system,” and this included the 2016 presidential election. They started out raising rabble and then moved on to supporting candidates Trump and Sanders and attacking candidates Clinton, Cruz, and Rubio . The stated goal was “spread[ing] distrust towards the candidates and the political system in general.”

The indictment doesn’t say why the Russians supported Trump and Sanders. My guess is because it was the best way to support its mission of sowing discord. If my presumption is true, it doesn’t rise to the level of collusion.

From my reading of the indictment, the interference of the Russians through the Internet Research Agency is pretty small time stuff. For example, an Instagram post from  “Blacktivist” that read in part: “Choose peace and vote for Jill Stein. Trust me, it’s not a wasted vote." and social media posts,“  “American Muslims [are] boycotting elections today, most of the American Muslim voters refuse to vote for Hillary Clinton because she wants to continue the war on Muslims in the middle east and voted yes for invading Iraq.” Or contacting Trump's campaign in Florida to suggest flash mobs for Trump.

The exact amount spent on these posts is undisclosed other than “millions” over the 2 or 3 year time period and in the month of September 2016 $1.25 million. It is difficult for me to believe this had an impact on the election.  And much of the FaceBook ads are posted after the election. Elliot Schrage, VP of Policy and Communication at Facebook pointed out “44% of total ad impressions (number of times ads were displayed) were before the US election on November 8, 2016; 56% were after the election.” (https://newsroom.fb.com/news/2017/10/hard-questions-russian-ads-delivered-to-congress/). This makes sense to me if the intent is to sow confusion, but less sense if there was collusion and further supports the idea there was a very small impact, if any.

But again, that’s somewhat avoiding the issue. What do we do about Russian, or any foreign actor, interfering in our elections. Should we regulate speech on Facebook, and Twitter? Should we limit all political speech on all media platforms? I’m opposed to limiting speech, so it’s a thorny issue. 

You and Friedman want Trump to do something, and since he isn’t doing what you want, he’s a traitor and should be impeached or resign. Well, I guess that is a conclusion that can be drawn, but it does seem rather perfervid. Plus, it’s a very strange solution. Besides presuming guilt before there is evidence of guilt, how will that solve foreign interference in our elections.

Again, my conclusion on all this is some people don’t like the outcome of the election, and they are willing to go to any lengths to invalidate it, including believing in a conspiracy theory worthy of Jim Garrison.

The heartbreaking aspect of these events is that the Russians have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. They have sowed discord and chaos into our elections, mostly because some refuse to accept the outcome of the election and have latched onto a theory that explains to them a very surprising decision by the American voter and now are desperately seeking a way to invalidate the election. I prefer the simpler theory: The election was a coin toss between two despicable candidates and the toss came up Trump.




Bill