Bill,
Although they outplayed Seattle for 58 minutes, the Green Bay
Packers lost the NFC championship yesterday. In the post mortem analysis (and
it really must feel like an autopsy to the Packers and their fans), four decision points stand out to this
observer.
Twice within the 1st quarter, the Packers chose to
accept a field goal attempt for the Seattle 1 yard line. The success rate for conversion attempts
under this circumstance is 53%.
Trailing 16-0 late in the 3rd quarter, the
Seahawks executed a fake field goal from the 19 yard line for a touchdown.
Statistics on such opportunities are harder to come by since they are much
rarer, but best estimates are a success rate, also, of around 50%
With just a few minutes left in the game, the Packers failed
to cover an onside kick that everyone in the football watching world knew was
coming. In the NFL overall, onside kicks enjoy a 26% success rate.
Thus, the Packer failed to seize 2 opportunities with a 50%
success rate, and failed to defend against 2 other opportunities that the Seahawks
chose to seize, with an average success rate of 35%. The potential reward for
success from any of these 4 decision points needs no further elaboration.
If Mike McCarthy were a hedge fund manager, my guess is he
would be looking a new job this morning.
My beloved Patriots may lose the Super Bowl in 2 weeks, but
I doubt it will be due to this kind miscalculation of risk and reward on Bill
Belichik’s part.
Eli
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