Amazon v Minimum Wage and Plastic Bags

Eli,

In 2018 about 2% of my groceries were purchased via Amazon. Year-to-date in 2019 about 10%. I'm pretty sure I'm behind the curve on this one.

Some of this change is price related, but more is due to getting exactly what I want from Amazon versus hoping my local grocery store has what I want in stock. And more due to the increasing sense of dissatisfaction I have at my local grocery store because there are fewer employees, fewer full-service check-out lines and more carts littering the parking lot.

And I can't help but wonder how much the minimum wage increases results in general increases in wages, resulting in fewer employees and fewer employee hours and a less service-intensive grocery store and me changing my shopping preference to Amazon.

Recently Connecticut abolished plastic bags, for reasons I can not comprehend. In the grand scheme of things this is a small change. However, it is a change, a greater inconvenience, an increased cost to my grocery bills. It is marginal, meaning small, but marginal in the economic sense as well, in that it is a change to equilibrium. In economics, all the action is at the margin.

And I can't help but wonder a couple of things. Did the proponents of this bill realize it will incentivize me to purchase even more of my groceries from Amazon because shopping is even more inconvenient? Did they consider my decision may be similar to the other shoppers out there and the market share of Amazon will increase and the market share of brick and mortar grocery stores will decline and this will result in fewer local jobs and reduced taxes receipts for the community.

And do the proponents realize grocery costs are a greater percent of low-income budgets than they are for well-off people? These guys, who get data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, claim food costs are 6% to 10% of the average family budget. For the well off it's lower, much lower. So when costs go up, either due to minimum wage or plastic bag bans, the costs are born disproportionately by the less well off. It's a regressive tax.

Bill

PS
Mrs. Knabe tells me the bag people are concerned about the Pacific garbage patch and biodegradability of bags. Both objections strike me as absurd, but so what. More of my purchases from Amazon results in many more cardboard boxes and plastic inside the boxes to protect the goods. I'm not convinced anything has been accomplished from an environmental perspective.

Trump v. Pelosi

Eli,

One of the valid criticisms of President Trump is his style of speaking. It's inarticulate, garbled, jumbled and often difficult to follow. The good news for his opponents is they can fairly easily mis-characterize what he has said, like the lie perpetuated regarding his "good people on both sides" comment after Charlottesville.

His recent Rose Garden statements are a pretty good example of his style.


The next video You Tube decided to show me was Nancy Pelosi and not for the first time I thought she is very similar to Trump in speaking style: Confused, jumbled, inarticulate and quite difficult to follow.

Bill

Game of Thrones v Fox News

Eli,

The Game of Thrones (boring) finale attracted 18 million or so viewers. This is far from the 106 million viewers for the season finale of MASH, or the 95 million who tuned in spontaneously for the pursuit of OJ Simpson (an oddly gripping broadcast). It does dwarf, however, the 2.4 million who view Fox News primetime, or  the 1.1 million who watched Mayor Pete on the Fox News Town Hall.

All to say, it is slightly more than ridiculous to paint Fox News, as E. Warren and others do, as the evil influence controlling opinions for half of America.

Bill

Hydraulic Fracturing

Eli,

From the EIA today:

Natural gas has about 1/2 the carbon emissions as coal and also emits few SOx andNOx. Because gas has overtaken coal carbon and other emissions from the electricity power generation sector has declined.
Also from EIA

 Before the Dems became the party of anti-semites and lunatics they supported hydraulic fracturing, the reason why natural gas has overtaken coal.

Bill

U.S. crude oil production grew 17% in 2018, surpassing the previous record in 1970

Eli,

Tom Wicker in the NY Times, March 2, 1977.

Today's article from the EIA
U.S. crude oil production grew 17% in 2018, surpassing the previous record in 1970

 " EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow in 2019 and 2020, averaging 12.3 million b/d and 13.0 million b/d, respectively."

Our energy policy, including climate change, is based on a fallacious premise that oil and gas will become unavailable. The opposite is true as long as prices are allowed to clear.

Bill

PS. It's all due to hydraulic fracturing, one of the demons of the Left.

Democrats Embrace Racism

Eli,

‘It Just Went Poof’: The Strange Aftermath of Virginia’s Cascade of Political Scandals, from the NY Times points out Ralph Northam is still governor of Virginia, Justin Fairfax is still Lt. Gov. and Mark Herring is still Attorney General.

Ben Tribbett Democratic strategist is quoted:

"Don’t apologize, move on, and everybody will talk about something else next week,” is how Ben Tribbett, a Democratic strategist, described it. “Maybe we’ve been doing it wrong over the last 100 years.”

Betsy Carr, a VA delegate:

Betsy Carr, a Democratic delegate, said shortly after stepping off the stage last week with Mr. Northam that voters “want to move on.” “They want positive things to happen, they’re concerned about the elections,” she said.

and from the chairman of the Prince Edward County Democratic Party.

“Winning is important,” said Taikein Cooper, the 30-year-old chairman of the Prince Edward County Democratic Party, “but we also have to have some morals.”

For a few years now the Democratic Media complex has accused anyone of supporting anything about Donald Trump as being "complicit." I've taken particular offense at this because complicit means involved in a crime. Cavalierly accusing someone of abetting a crime, without evidence, without describing what the crime is, is horrid and odious.

By that same logic anyone who still supports the Democrats now, is complicit in racism and misogyny and anti-semitism.


 Bill

Dueling Climate Narratives

Eli,

From Reuters via the NY Times:

Climate Change's Fingerprints Are on U.S. Midwest Floods: Scientists.

Also from the NY Times.

California Drought Is Made Worse by Global Warming, Scientists Say

Curious if it's the same group of scientists.

Bill

Looks Like Elizabeth Warren Was Right After All (At Least About This)

Bill,


The latest data on the relation between  bankruptcy and healthcare costs for uninsured patients,


Eli

Hope

Eli,
You are quoting Margaret Thatcher. There's hope for you yet.

Bill

250 counties, 28 new members of Congress

Bill,


That's number of counties who voted twice for Barack Obama and then for Donald Trump, and the number of newly elected members of Congress from districts that Trump carried. The reality here is as plain as the smile Ronna McDaniel Romney's face at the prospect of branding Democrats as a bunch of raving socialists; Medicare for all! Free College tuition! Get rid of the billionaires! I may favor a lot more government involvement in public life than you, but I think Margaret Thatcher had one thing right when she said, "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money."


Mrs Butcher and I had a serious conversation over whether we could really bring ourselves to vote for Bernie or Warren. Most likely yes but only with deep sadness and foreboding. We are a center-left/right country. The Democratic party is a diverse and fractious coalition. Moderates make up a majority of the electorate. Democratic primary voters ignore that reality at their peril. 


Eli

We Are Complicit

Bill,


We are complicit if we do not speak out. Bigotry and hate should be opposed whatever the source and whatever the target. The  argument that "both sides do it" is the false moral equivalence that the President has engaged in so effectively to normalize such behavior.


Frankly, I don't expect any better from the Republicans. I do expect better from my party. That is why I reached out, and will continue to do so. Sooner or later I expect my congresswoman to address these issues directly, or she will hear from me again, in a manner less diplomatic.


I hope Rep Omar faces a primary challenge next year. Those who defend her are blind fools, like the German Jews who didn't think the Nazis meant exactly what they said.


Eli

House Resolution 183

Eli,

Your letter to your congress-women was moving and it is tragic anyone ever has to write this kind of letter to any congress person.

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong resolution they finally voted on. This is what I found: H.RES 183

Here's the first sentence:

Condemning anti-Semitism as hateful expressions of intolerance that are contradictory to the values and aspirations that define the people of the United States and condemning anti-Muslim discrimination and bigotry against minorities as hateful expressions of intolerance that are contrary to the values and aspirations of the United States.

It goes on to condemn bigotry of all sorts, including the Dreyfus Affair, so we can check that one off of the atrocities we are against.

It just strikes me as odd that no where does it condemn the multiple specific anti-semitic statements from Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Mn). And she's still on the Foreign Affairs Committee. (And Ralph Northam is still governor of VA and Keith Ellison is still AG of Minnesota).

We've had this argument before: Both parties have their cretins they are at times unwilling to evict because of power considerations. I guess that makes all of us, in your word, complicit.

Bill

My Email to My Congresswoman

Bill


Dear Congresswoman Hayes,


I am a lifelong Democrat. I voted for you and contributed to your campaign, and I wish you success in the days ahead.


I am also an American Jew, whose father fought in the great war in Europe, Dday+17, and who passed on hard learned lessons about anti-semitism and the enduring need to  call it out at every turn.


Congresswoman Omar's tactics are classic anti-semitic maneuvers-dual loyalty, love of money, sinister control are all part  of the playbook. She doesn't just want justice for the Palestinians, (as do I, in the form of their own state). She wants the Israelis to disappear. If you want to get a sense of where she's going, just look across the Atlantic at Jeremy Corbin.


I hope you will come to see this with time and disavow her and those who enable her.  


Sincerely,


Eli

Lies and More Lies

Eli,

I think Trump lies often. I think Obama lied often. I think Bush lied often. I think politicians lie. Often. Yet somehow the lie detection chyrons on CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc are deployed for Trump but I don't recall the same level of devotion to truth patrol for anyone other than Trump.

Ahhh, but Trump lies much more than a normal politician. Maybe, probably. So it's OK to lie a certain amount but once you cross the lying Maginot line the guardians of veracity have to take action. Got it. Good to know. Ummm, please tell me how much is  the lying tipping point.

I don't trust the guardians of truth. I think they lie, or are stupid, or both. The easiest example for me is a small lie, but repeated often. Maggie Haberman at the NY Times claimed the Intelligence Community was unanimous in concluding the Russians interfered with the election. This is absurd. There are 17 members of the Intelligence Community, including US Coast Guard Intelligence. Sure, the Coast Guard evaluated the Russian interference claim and agreed the Russians interfered. This lie was repeated over and over again by media and Congressman and the NY Times and ALL of them did or should have known better. There are many many many many many many more examples of lies perpetuated or enabled or ignored (if proposed by the right side) by the guardians of truth. I pick on the NY Times but I think ALMOST ALL of them are bad, including Fox, Breitbart and their ilk.

I think the Russian investigation is a lie. It is based on a lie, perpetuated by lies and is now falling apart so more lies are being proposed to replace the discredited lie. Good job everyone.

I've become agitated about this recently because of the relentlessness of the lies and the impact it is having. I think it's bad for the country to believe and spread these lies and justify it with "Orange Man Bad."

A young man I cherish was speaking with his mother recently bemoaning the state of the job market today compared to the job market when she entered the workforce. [Double head shake- What the what!!] He claimed the job market today is much worse than the late 1980's. I've heard you say, accurately, this is just about the best job market ever. And yet this intelligent, educated young man has the belief the job market is poor. How can this be. Ignorance of youth, impatience to move along, maybe dis-satisfaction with the job he got shortly after graduating. And maybe a large dose of news reports and statements from Republicans and Democrats about how awful things are or are going to be. When Obama was President the GOP complained about slow growth and the Dems/Obama talked about the longevity of the recovery. When Trump became President the positions change. They are all lying and and the lies are repeated by their useful idiots, their media vassals. On both sides.

The relentlessness of the lies is one of the reasons I am highly skeptical of climate change predictions. The predictions are based on assumption of population growth, economic growth, energy intensity and fuel sources. The most dire predictions, the ones constantly repeated by the press and politicians is based on RCP 8.5. The Atlantic had something to say about RCP 8.5 in this article.  And the lies and ignorance leads to stupid predictions like this: "U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked. UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000." Yes, the prediction is from June 29, 1989. Fortunately, according to the silly little girl from Brooklyn we have another 12 years to fix everything before global disaster. I guess I'm a denier because I deny believing they know the difference between their elbow and a hole in the ground.

I'm sure a certain Nobel-prize winning NY Times columnist who predicted the world would end with the election of Trump will suddenly discover the strength of the economy when a Republican isn't in the White House. And God forbid we would give credit to Trump, corporate tax cuts and de-regulation which were predicted to accelerate growth. No instead we have lies, or ignorance, I'll go with lies, from dopes like Kamala Harris and Chris Murphy, claiming the reason people are getting lower tax rebates this year is because the tax cuts went to the millionaires and billionaires and the greedy corporations. Probably has nothing to do with the IRS adjusting withholding tables to withhold less taxes meaning people have been benefiting from the tax cut for a full year.

So yea, I'm cheesed off. Not just at the Dems for lying about Obamcare. Not just at the Republicans for lying about whatever they are lying about and not just the media for being incompetent. I'm cheesed off at all of them. And I think ALL of them are hurting the country.

I'm not going to defend the character of President Trump. I didn't vote for him, I don't like him. I'll probably vote for him in 2020 [and please don't accuse then of being complicit. Complicit? As in being in on a crime? Sigh]. This assume he runs against one of the lunatics the Dems are contemplating and I believe they will nominate a lunatic. I still won't like him and I'll still believe he's a flawed person. The Republican Bill Clinton if Bill Clinton weren't already a Republican.

Bill

Democarats Are Liars. Republicans Always Tell The Truth

Bill,


I read with interest but not surprise your "J'accuse"  against the Democrats for the claims made about the ACA that proved to be incorrect. In this hyper partisan age, I imagine  it's too much for either side to accept honest intentions from the other. It isn't possible that President Obama actually believed what he said when he asserted that "you can keep your health care if you like it" (that was in fact the reality for 99.2% of Americans). No, every thought or action must be proof the venality of the other side.


To return to our favorite New York  Times columnist, I'm curious to hear your thoughts about Brooks' reaction to Michael Cohen's testimony, and what he thinks it tells us about the leader of our country and his vociferous supporters. As usual, I can't improve upon his sentiments.    


"Normal people have moral sentiments. Normal people are repulsed when the president of their own nation lies, cheats, practices bigotry, allegedly pays off porn star mistresses.

Were Republican House members enthusiastic or morose as they decided to turn off their own moral circuits, when they decided to be monumentally unconcerned by the fact that their leader may be a moral cretin?

Do they think that having anesthetized their moral sense in this case they will simply turn it on again down the road? Having turned off their soul at work, do they think they will be able to turn it on again when they go home to the spouse and kids?"

Time will tell, I suppose. When he finally falls, no doubt they will all say they didn't know. How could they? He is their creation, after all.

Eli

Bill,


Thanks for the heads up over David Brooks' post in Mondays New York Times. I read him  religiously, yet somehow I missed this one. Even if I were a better writer, I couldn't have improved upon his argument. MFA (Medicare For All) is simply a terrible idea on multiple fronts. What Brooks leaves out is the fact that aside from every other argument, the politics for Democrats of taking away  employer-based health care from the 180 million Americans who like it is suicidal. I predict the idea will quietly dissipate by the general election,. Unless of course, the Democratic nominee is, god forbid, Bernie, or Liz.


Though you may hate those as well, there are much easier solutions that accomplish the same goal of providing universal access.


1) Allow anyone over 55 to buy into Medicare-lets call that Medicare for most.
2) Support and strengthen Medicaid access under the ACA.
3) Provide a public option on the exchanges-the policy option that Sen Lieberman destroyed back in 2009.
4) Allow Medicare to bargain for drug and device prices.


These maneuvers, which could easily pass a Democratic Congress and be readily signed by President Hickenlooper in 2021, would continue the kind of incremental change that our healthcare system so desperately needs.


Eli








  

Brooks on Medicare for All, Part 2

Eli,

I was thinking of how the proponents of Medicare for All would overcome the obstacles Brooks articulates.

It finally dawned on me it will be easy. They'll do the same thing they did with ObamaCare: Lie about it from start to finish. One big fat lie after another. Problem solved.

Bill

Brooks on Medicare for All

Eli,

I'm sure you read David Brooks' Medicare for All piece from yesterday. I usually agree with about 50% of anything Brooks says, but this time I am in 100% agreement.

I read the first few comments and re-discovered how remarkably ingnorant and uninformed NY Times commenters are.

Bill

Read This Book With Me

Bill,


This book by Mitt Romney's former domestic policy advisor has gotten a lot of buzz from sources ranging from David Brooks to Ross Douthat to Thomas Edsall. The book lives up to hype. I'm half way through and can't put it down. Pretty impressive for a 150 pages of policy wonk.


Cass confirms the argument made here in previous BPS posts that 1) Despite their protestations to the contrary, neither the Left nor Right care very much about working class Americans and 2) The policies of the last 50 years promulgated by both those groups have certainly not helped and often made things worse. He makes a compelling case that it is the failure of the availability of productive work, work that feeds families, gives dignity, provides social cohesion, and strengthens communities, that lies at the core of our current social implosion. While he begins from a conservative perspective, many of his proposal do not fit into convenient ideological categories. Some solutions, such as an end to the college-for-everyone fantasy with movement toward broader vocational training opportunity feel obvious. Others, such as his ideas for trade and immigration reform, are making me rethink long held but poorly thought out notions of just how current policies affect my countrymen, since the current ones either benefit me or don't affect me at all.


Hope you take a look. Available online at your local library.


Eli

Republicans And Race

Bill


You don't need to look to Democrats to call out the Grand Old Party on this issue. This quote comes from Peter Wehner in this month's Atlantic, explaining why he has left the Republican Party.

It would be deeply unfair to claim that most Republicans are bigots. But it is fair to say that most Republicans today are willing to tolerate without dissent, and in many cases enthusiastically support, a man whose appeal is based in large part on stoking racial and ethnic resentments, on attacking “the other.” That has to be taken into account. At a minimum, their moral reflexes have been badly dulled.

It’s impossible for me to know with any precision how much of the Republican base is motivated by ethnic nationalism and racial resentments and anxieties, but it’s certainly a higher percentage than I’d thought. A conservative friend of mine recently had a meal with a prominent Republican officeholder who, when asked what explained Trump’s growing appeal in his state, told my friend it was in reaction to Obama and it was mainly a matter of race.

Eli

Bestraft die Bosen

Bill,


Enjoy your schadenfreude. I might note one important difference in the 2 parties response to their internal miscreants. In general, the Republicans have been complicit until circumstances absolutely compel them to speak out. Indeed, from the beginning of the Bigot-In-Chief's promulgation of the racist theory of President Obama's citizenship, most Republicans have either turned a blind eye or enabled the rising intolerance of a crucial part of their base. In contrast, the Democratic calls for Governor Northam to resign have been long and loud, and will likely continue until he does so. I think the same fate awaits Virginia's his Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.


We disagree about a lot in American cultural and political life but we agree on this. Overt racism and sexual harassment  are intolerable, anytime, anywhere.


Eli

Galatians 6:7

Eli,

I can't help but feeling more than a bit of schadenfreude over the recent events in Virginia. [Governor is a racist; Lt. Governor is a rapist; Atty. General also a racist].

For years, but particularly since 2016 the Dems have, I think mostly hypocritically and shamelessly, branded their political  and ideological opponents as racist, sexist, homophobes.

Now that they are confronted by the real thing in their own party, its a time for reflection. OK, got it.

Bill

Speaker of the House Pelosi

January 2007 Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker of the House
January 2011 John Boehner becomes Speaker of the House
January 2019 Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker of the House

Damn gerrymandering.